452

abio10 pgtw 231200
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
/reissued/231200z-231800znov2009//
ref/a/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/230752znov2009//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 4.9n 91.6e,
approximately 215 nm west of the northwest tip of Sumatra. Animated
infrared satellite imagery indicates cyclonic turning of deep
convection over a developing low level circulation center (LLCC). A
230336z ascat pass reveals 20-25 knot-winds wrapping into the system
center from the southeast quadrant. Environmental analysis indicates
the system is located equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis in
an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear and has limited
outflow aloft. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20
to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009
mb. Due to increased convective consolidation, the potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to poor.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 230600z, tropical cyclone 02s (two) was located near
8.5s 53.6e, approximately 735 nm north-northeast of Antananarivo
Madagascar, and had tracked westward at 06 knots over the past six
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 40 knots
gusting to 50 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 230900) for further
details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 8.5s 54.7e,
is now the subject of a tropical cyclone warning. See para. 2.A.(1)
for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 2.B.(1) to
warning status and added area in para 1.B.(1) as poor.//

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