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abpw10 pgtw 050600
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/050600z-060600znov2009//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 10.0n
166.0e, is now located near 14.0n 161.1e, approximately 455 nm north-
northeast of Pohnpei. The current position has been adjusted
northwest of the previous bulletin, in line with the deepest
convection and best low level turning in animated multispectral
imagery. In general, this imagery shows a large area of unorganized
convection associated with an easterly wave and strong surface
convergence along the northern boundary (of this wave). It is
probable that a small low level circulation center (LLCC) is
embedded within this wave, but none is readily identifiable in
current metsat imagery. Upper level outflow is positioned to
increase into a developing upper level low to the west of the
Hawaiian islands over the next 24 hours. However, outflow to the
west has abated due to the weakening of a tropical upper
tropospheric (tutt) cell to the northwest. Vertical wind shear (vws)
is moderate due to a tightened gradient between an upper level
anticyclone to the east and the aforementioned, weakened TUTT to the
west. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb.
Due to the lack of an identifiable LLCC, poor overall organization,
and moderate vws, the potential for the development of a significant
tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains poor.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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